Enter your probability estimate and compare it to the best available odds.
A value bet is one where your own estimate of an outcome's chance is higher than the chance baked into the bookmaker's odds. This calculator takes the win probability you think is correct and the decimal odds on offer, then works out the expected value (EV) — the average profit or loss per krona if you placed the same bet thousands of times. A positive EV means the price is in your favour on paper; a negative EV means the bookmaker has the edge.
The whole method rests on one thing the calculator cannot do for you: producing a probability estimate that is more accurate than the bookmaker's. Even a genuine edge only shows up over hundreds or thousands of bets, and the variance along the way is brutal — long losing runs are normal even when every bet is mathematically sound. Bookmakers also limit or close accounts that consistently beat their lines, so a winning approach can get throttled. Treat the EV figure as a long-run average, not a prediction of your next result.
Say you reckon a team has a 55% chance to win and the odds are 2.00. Your expected return on a 100 kr stake is 0.55 × 200 kr = 110 kr, so the EV is +10 kr per 100 kr staked — a 10% edge. The odds of 2.00 imply only a 50% chance, so your 55% estimate is what makes it a value bet. Flip your estimate to 45% and the EV turns to −10 kr: now the bookmaker holds the edge.
Enter your probability estimate and compare it to the best available odds.
A value bet is one where your own estimate of an outcome's chance is higher than the chance baked into the bookmaker's odds. This calculator takes the win probability you think is correct and the decimal odds on offer, then works out the expected value (EV) — the average profit or loss per krona if you placed the same bet thousands of times. A positive EV means the price is in your favour on paper; a negative EV means the bookmaker has the edge.
The whole method rests on one thing the calculator cannot do for you: producing a probability estimate that is more accurate than the bookmaker's. Even a genuine edge only shows up over hundreds or thousands of bets, and the variance along the way is brutal — long losing runs are normal even when every bet is mathematically sound. Bookmakers also limit or close accounts that consistently beat their lines, so a winning approach can get throttled. Treat the EV figure as a long-run average, not a prediction of your next result.
Say you reckon a team has a 55% chance to win and the odds are 2.00. Your expected return on a 100 kr stake is 0.55 × 200 kr = 110 kr, so the EV is +10 kr per 100 kr staked — a 10% edge. The odds of 2.00 imply only a 50% chance, so your 55% estimate is what makes it a value bet. Flip your estimate to 45% and the EV turns to −10 kr: now the bookmaker holds the edge.